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April 24, 2022

Fantasy Football 101: Expect Josh Allen To Take A Step Backwards This Season

Buffalo Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen isn’t just the most dynamic quarterback in the NFL. Allen is also the most valuable fantasy football quarterback on the market, showing that the Bills struck gold with their superstar.

Allen is the top ranked quarterback on FantasyPros, and as Sam Ryner points out, Allen’s ranked that high for good reason. However, Ryner does point caution that Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott could stop Allen from achieving what he had in the previous two fantasy seasons. 

“Allen, who has finished as the overall QB1 in back to back seasons, rushed 122 times for 763 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2021. If McDermott’s vision for Allen and the Bills’ offense comes to fruition, Allen’s run as the top quarterback in fantasy may come to an end in 2022. For perspective, in 2021, 28.5% of Allen’s fantasy points came from rushing yards and touchdowns. If he were to have his rushing yards and touchdowns cut in half, he would have finished as the QB5 in 2021. Allen will still likely be taken as the first quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts in 2022, but his rushing attempts will be something to monitor early in the season and if less attempts for Allen becomes a reality then he may be a sell high candidate in dynasty leagues.”

Allen finished the season completing 409-passes, for 4407-yards, and 36-touchdowns. Allen also threw 15-interceptions. If Allen is running the ball less, I anticipate that his passing yards will increase, and I’d still anticipate five or six rushing touchdowns. 

Allen was third ranked quarterback on PFF, and finished the season with a 90.9 overall grade. What I found interesting was, Allen had a 93.6 run grade, but only scored a 81.9 passing grade. If I were trying to find a red flag when you’re considering drafting Allen, if he runs less it would drastically affect his fantasy season. 

Taking everything into consideration, even if Josh Allen ran the football less and wasn’t the top ranked fantasy quarterback, I don’t foresee him falling out of the top five. What is also obvious to me is, if Allen isn’t the top fantasy quarterback, there isn’t another sure pick ahead of him at the quarterback position. I would say you should feel safe taking Josh Allen on your fantasy team this season. 

The only question that all owners should have, if Allen is going to be less productive in the run game, or at least used less, than maybe wait until the third round to address the quarterback position, because taking Allen in the second round could be a stretch if other weapons are on the board and there is no guarantee that any quarterback is going to be the best fantasy quarterback in football.